Case Study

$5 Multi NL Tourney:
Seat 1: buzz cut ($1,715 in chips)
Seat 2: ojlimps-in ($2,750 in chips)
Seat 3: Cruger19 ($3,695 in chips)
Seat 4: SDTJ78 [AD,8D] ($1,310 in chips)
Seat 5: Ebo81 ($1,255 in chips)
Seat 6: melluck ($4,786 in chips)
Seat 7: Bearcat02 ($1,615 in chips)
Seat 8: duder76 ($4,370 in chips)
Seat 9: ravingmaniac ($2,019 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Bearcat02 posts blind ($15), duder76 posts blind ($30).

PRE-FLOP
ravingmaniac folds, buzz cut folds, ojlimps-in calls $30, Cruger19 calls $30, SDTJ78 bets $200, Ebo81 folds, melluck folds, Bearcat02 calls $185, duder76 folds, ojlimps-in calls $170, Cruger19 calls $170.

:Extra limpers here stuff the pot

FLOP [board cards 4C,10C,4D ]
Bearcat02 checks, ojlimps-in checks, Cruger19 checks, SDTJ78 bets $500, Bearcat02 calls $500, ojlimps-in folds, Cruger19 folds.

:I go for the steal. If he re-raised I probably would have folded.

TURN [board cards 4C,10C,4D,5D ]
Bearcat02 bets $915 and is all-in, SDTJ78 calls $610 and is all-in.

:Sometimes you can't carefully run all the numbers in the heat of a bet.

Possibilities:
:He has pocket fives, tens, or god forbid, fours and I couldn't win
-Not likely. If he has the nuts he wants me to bet again and call. He's got the turn to challenge me.

:He has a four, or pocket aces. [AT] on his part also breaks down to the same number of outs.
-I considered this the most likely scenario. In this case I need one of my 9 flush outs to hit to win. Now stick with me here; if he has a four he could also have a diamond, but if he has aces he can't. To be safe we'll only subtract one card from the deck for him. That means there are 9 outs in a 45 card "deck", giving me a straight up 20% chance of winning.

Call and win:
20% * +2440 = +488 expected
80% * -610 = -488 expected

So it's even expected odds.

:He has another high pocket pair, or a [T,x]
-Not terribly likely but possible. In this case I have extra outs if my Ace pairs up. Gives me positive odds.

:He has a low pocket pair
-even less likely given his betting. Makes my 7 potentially good, even better expected odds.

:He's bluffing something really random
-Unlikely. In this case I'm looking pretty good.

We're early in the tournament, if I win I'm looking good, if I fold I can rally, but I'm in a tough spot.

Of course my thinking was mostly: "I have a flush draw and an A. I'm committed to the pot from my bluff. If he's bluffing I have a good shot, and if he's got it I'm likely to break even". So I call.

RIVER [board cards 4C,10C,4D,5D,6D ]

Am I lucky? Yes. Was my call stupid? No.

SHOWDOWN
Bearcat02 shows [ AS,AH ]
SDTJ78 shows [ AD,8D ]
Bearcat02 wins $305, SDTJ78 wins $3,050.